Dorking Wandering
The Dorking Wanderers FC Fans Forum
With a quiet week ahead to draw breath and the league table looking pretty healthy, I thought it worth a look to see what might be needed from the final 12 games to secure promotion in top spot.
In each of the last two seasons 85 points would have been enough to win the NLS. That = 1.85 points per game (ppg). Going back further, to 2015-16, before the league reached its current 46 game season, it seems that 2.07 would have been enough to win the league in all but 2016-17 season, when Maidenhead and Ebbsfleet walked it and got 98 and 96 points respectively (2.3 ppg).
This seems like a season when the final winning points tally won't be too high, given that everyone is taking points of each other and the leading teams are all losing to much lower placed teams (as we did at the start of the season). So, it is reasonable to expect that 85 points might be enough to win it. That would mean securing 20 more points from 12 games, or 1.67 ppg. It would allow us to drop 16 out of the 36 points still available. That, for example, could include losing to all of Torquay (H), Boreham Wood (A), Eastbourne (H), and Worthing (A) and drawing two other games - eg Enfield (A) are in good form and St Albans is also a tricky place to go to. It seems unlikely that we would lose all those four games, especially as Maidstone and the Wood seem to be struggling a bit at the moment. So any results in these games would give a bit more breathing space for slip-ups in other games.
So far this season we have got 1.91 ppg, a shade above what Marc says is a good benchmark of 1.8. If we were to continue at our current rate (which includes our pretty ropey start to the season) it would get us to 88 points. However, given that Worthing have been on a great run until crashing at Slough and have only three games vs the current top 7 to play, it may take 90 points to finish ahead of them. That would mean an extra 25 points, or 2.08 ppg. Or only dropping 11 points for the rest of the season. A tough ask, but still doable.
We are top of the form league at the moment, with 16 out of the last 18 points, but these games have been against teams in the lower half of the table, apart from Hampton & Richmond. On the plus side, the team is playing well consistently now, looking defensively solid and with cover in more or less every position (although if TC got injured that would be a problem). And the best finisher at the club has hardly played at all, and seems sharp when he comes on. Given that we have not created many chances in the last couple of games, he might be required a bit more for the rest of the season to get us over the line in what will no doubt be some bum-clenchingly tight games.
And also, if we don't win the league, we all love a play off game don't we?!
Any guesses as to how many points we will end up with? And are Worthing going to remain our biggest rivals? Could be a cracking Easter Monday down there!
A good review.
I have looked through the last 12 games we have and the league home and away form, so I have not done a detailed analysis of the other teams.
I have 2 scenarios for us:
1. Last 12 is 6-2-4 and we finish with 25-10-11 and 85 points
3. Last 12 is 7-2-3 and we finish with 26-10-10 and 88 points.
Looking at the league 85 points+ could be enough to win it.
We have a good run of home games against teams we are expected to beat, if we can win these then we will be in with a good chance.
The last 5 games Boreham Wood and Torquay have had blips which has now caused the league title to be open again with Worthing being hammered on Saturday as well. However if one of those 3 goes on an unbelievable run from now on then they could still do it.
We have a maximum of 101 points.
In reality it's about trying not to lose to teams in the top 7 and winning the vast majority of the rest. Any wins against teams in the top 7 are huge '6 pointers'
We are good enough (touch wood) as long as we don't have injuries to the likes of Josh Taylor, Tony Craig and Charlie Carter.
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
We have a maximum of 101 points.
In reality it's about trying not to lose to teams in the top 7 and winning the vast majority of the rest. Any wins against teams in the top 7 are huge '6 pointers'
We are good enough (touch wood) as long as we don't have injuries to the likes of Josh Taylor, Tony Craig and Charlie Carter.
Exactly the games against Torquay, Boreham Wood, Eastbourne and Worthing are the Must Not Lose, Preferably Win games, as it gives an advantage to the winner. If you lose a couple, it is best they are not against your rivals, even though it is galling to lose to a lower place side. Crawley are in the opposite position in that we are fighting to stay up. I would rather lose to the better sides like Huddersfield and Birmingham than our relegation rivals such as Peterborough and Northampton. The latter games are our Must Not Lose, Preferably Win games.
I am hoping to go to both the Torquay and Eastbourne games as Crawley are away on those days.
I am going to the Crawley-Wigan game tomorrow, I hope Crawley stay up, it would be good for the local area to continue to have an affordable club playing a very good level of football.
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
I receive an e-mail notification of a new post, but today they have all been in Chinese (or perhaps Japanese).
An extract for example:
《真实渠道》RPI毕业证假文凭Q/微8194343能做高品质伦斯勒理工学院毕业证成绩单，提供补办Rensselaer硕士毕业证书，高仿RPI本科文凭证书，1:1仿校方版RPI毕业证成绩单，专业伪造伦斯勒理工学院学历认证办
RPI毕业证假文凭Q/微8194343能做高品质伦斯勒理工学院毕业证成绩单，提供补办Rensselaer硕士毕业证书，高仿RPI本科文凭证书，1:1仿校方版RPI毕业证成绩单，专业伪造伦斯勒理工学院学历认证办理流程，驾照，学生ID卡，录取通知书，学费单，在读证明Buy Fake Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Diploma Degree Transcript 购买毕业证成绩单+留学服务QQ/微信8194343诚信办理，专业制作，誠招代理
Some of the messages are appearing multiple times. Is anyone else having this problem?
My other e-mails are OK.
A bit early to be a run-in as such but here is the average position for each team's remaining fixtures:
Dorking - 10.5
Torquay - 13.07
Worthing - 13.53
Boreham Wood - 13.42
Eastbourne - 14.23
Truro - 13.5
Maidstone - 12.46
Weston - 11.38
We have by far the hardest run of remaining fixtures and even more so when we play the hardest ones pretty much all consecutively.
However, the lowest amount of points I can see us getting between now and the end of the season is 22 points which would see us finish on 87. I would be surprised if we finished lower than 2nd at this point but that does require us to really go on a good run in the remaining home fixtures.
@dorkingtyke Yes, there was a large spamming effort this morning, which I think we have now resolved, but you may be best to turn off notifications if you are still getting them, until we can stop these. Let us know if it remains an issue though.
Thanks.
I am going to the Crawley-Wigan game tomorrow, I hope Crawley stay up, it would be good for the local area to continue to have an affordable club playing a very good level of football.
I hope you enjoy the game. Hoping for a win tomorrow as it is our game in hand.
Someone (presumably in China) created an account and started approximately 300 new topics, spamming the travel section of the forum. We were onto it within the hour it started but it took a while to delete everything and block the user.
All of the posts have been deleted, and from now on any newly created accounts will have to have their first 3 posts approved by moderators (who will keep an eye out for new members so as not to hold up genuine people)
If you go into My Profile > Account > Subscriptions then you can turn off email notifications.
"Why would I leave to join a League Two club? We're going there anyway!" - Marc White
Unless there has been a sudden increase in demand for seats on the bus to Enfield? 🤔
@calvertskans interesting stats on remaining opponents. I am not sure that our record against the lowest placed teams is any better than the one against the top teams. And home advantage counts for nothing it seems, statistically at least. More important than the opponents perhaps is getting a first choice and fit team/squad out there every week and taking the game to the opposition. Should be some cracking games to come.
