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The Run-In - Fixtur...
 
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The Run-In - Fixture Analysis

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TomCalvert
(@calvertskans)
Noble Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 717
Topic starter  

I think we can safely say that the final 3 relegation spots will be any 3 of the current bottom 5 teams (not counting Oxford) - Dorking, Kiddy, Boreham Wood, Wealdstone, York. If any of Ebbsfleet, Maidenhead, Woking, Fylde lose their remaining games then there is a chance they could get dragged in to it but I doubt it.

These are the remaining fixtures for each club:

Date Dorking (44) Kidderminster (46) Boreham Wood (47) Wealdstone (47) York City (50)
Tues 9th     Rochdale (A) Southend (H)  
Thurs 11th Wealdstone (A)     Dorking (H)  
Sat 13th Rochdale (A) Eastleigh (H) Aldershot (A) Chesterfield (H) Woking (H)
Tues 16th       Eastleigh (H)  
Sat 20th Hartlepool (H) Barnet (A) Ebbsfleet (H) Oldham (A) Solihull (A)

I wouldn't say any club has an "easy" run-in but statistically we have the easiest at an average league position of 14.3. Kidderminster have the hardest at 8th.

Boreham Wood look to have a tricky few games to me; it just depends how up for it Rochdale will be as they are one of the few teams not playing for anything at this stage really. Aldershot away will be though as they need to win to keep in the playoff hunt and Ebbsfleet are one of the form teams in the league at the moment. I don't see them getting much more than 4 points from those 3 games.

Kidderminster have the hardest run in in terms of league position but I actually think that Eastleigh home game is very winnable for them. Barnet away will obviously be tough but they may have already secured 2nd place by then and able to rest players for the playoffs. Again, I think 4 points is a realistic amount for them as a maximum.

Wealdstone have the unenviable task of playing 5 games in 11 days which you imagine will really hurt them as a part time side, although 4 of those games being at home is a big help for them. Will they sacrifice the Southend game to have a bigger go against us considering we are their direct relegation rivals? Chesterfield already appear to be on the beach a little bit but are chasing that 100 point total. Eastleigh at home again looks winnable but a playoff chasing Oldham might be tough on the last day of the season. The max I can see them getting is 5 points.

York City are likely safe in my opinion but I think they are capable of losing both those games, especially as they picked up a couple of suspensions yesterday. However, Woking will feel they are safe now and might lose a bit of edge so I would expect York to beat them at home. Solihull away will be though though as they are still fighting for a playoff place. 3 points expected from those 2 games which should see them survive.

That just leaves Dorking - I think the games at Wealdstone and Hartlepool should be wins but it is that short turnaround at Rochdale that really worries me. Although technically it isn't much different to playing Saturday and then a Bank Holiday Monday, I think it will be a big ask at this stage of the season with the injuries we have. If the Prior injury rules him out for more than the Wealdstone game then I think we will be down. That being said, I can see us gettin 7 points max from these games.

If everyone picks up there max points total then that leaves the final points tally as:

19th - York City - 53 pts

20th - Wealdstone - 52 pts

21st - Boreham Wood - 51 pts

22nd - Dorking - 51 pts

23rd - Kiddy - 50 pts

 

I think the big question here is Wealdstone, can they get 5 points from those 5 games with such short turnarounds? If they lose on Tuesday against Southend then I can maybe see Wealdstone and Boreham Wood swapping places.

Am I being too harsh on Eastleigh calling them a comfortable win for every side? Will Rochdale be more up for it than I am expecting?

One thing that I do expect is 9 points from Dorking should keep them up.


   
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Baggy
(@baggy)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 225
 

I found Boreham Wood a soulless club tbh, even if they have decent facilities.  I won't argue with your local chippy knowledge @ Dorking Eagle, but I enjoyed our visit to Ebbsfleet 2 years ago when it was all mixed zone. A sunny day helped, but they had a good selection of food stands, craft ale pop ups and plenty of space. 


   
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AdeB
 AdeB
(@adeb)
Honorable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 521
 

@dorking-eagle Yeah I'm with you on that one - Borehamwood one of the best away days, I've lot of time for that club unlike many other people.


   
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AdeB
 AdeB
(@adeb)
Honorable Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 521
 

@baggy You only get access to that craft ale/food pop up if it's not segregated which it wasn't 2 years ago, but almost always is now. Agree on the sunshine bit though, was there that day too.


   
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